The Cost of a China-US Conflict

12 Feb 2023 by rate3

What is the cost-estimate of the China-US non-nuclear war?

During World War 2, the size of military expenditure in the US federal budget was significant. In 1940, prior to the US entering the war, military spending was approximately 1.9 billion dollars, which was approximately 7.5% of the federal budget. By 1945, military spending had risen to approximately 98 billion dollars, or roughly 36% of the federal budget. This significant increase in military spending was due to the large-scale mobilization of US military and industrial resources in support of the war effort. The spending was directed towards the production of weapons, equipment, and supplies, as well as the expansion of the armed forces and the support of military operations overseas.

It's difficult to make a direct comparison between different conflicts and estimate the cost of a hypothetical conflict with China based on previous wars the United States has been involved in. However, here are some examples of the cost of some major 20th-century conflicts that the US was involved in:

Vietnam War: The cost of the Vietnam War is estimated to have been between 150 billion and 170 billion dollars in inflation-adjusted dollars.
Persian Gulf War: The cost of the Persian Gulf War was estimated to be between 61 billion and 76 billion dollars in inflation-adjusted dollars.
Afghanistan War: The cost of the Afghanistan War is estimated to be over 2 trillion dollars in inflation-adjusted dollars.
The current breakdown of the United States federal budget is roughly as follows:

Social Security: This is the largest portion of the federal budget and accounts for approximately 24% of total spending.
Defense: Defense spending accounts for approximately 15% of the federal budget and includes funding for the Department of Defense, military personnel, and operations overseas.
Health Care: This includes funding for Medicare, Medicaid, and other health-related programs and accounts for approximately 14% of the federal budget.
Interest on Debt: This accounts for approximately 7% of the federal budget and is the cost of borrowing money to finance past deficit spending.
Safety Net Programs: This includes funding for programs such as food stamps (SNAP), housing assistance, and unemployment insurance and accounts for approximately 6% of the federal budget.
Other spending: This includes funding for education, infrastructure, scientific research, and other areas and accounts for approximately 34% of the federal budget.
The United States federal government's budget is typically around 4 trillion dollars per year. However, the exact amount can vary from year to year and depends on various factors such as the state of the economy, federal spending priorities, and revenue collections.

Conclusion, it is difficult to accurately predict the exact military expenses that the United States would incur in the event of a non-nuclear conflict with China. The cost would depend on various factors such as the duration of the conflict, the scale of military operations, the deployment of military assets, and the extent of damage to military equipment and infrastructure.

However, based on common sense and some historical precedents, it is probably safe to say that the cost of such a conflict would not be less than 2-3 trillion dollars and could constitute 30-40% of the US government's yearly budget of 4 trillion dollars, or approximately 1.2 to 1.6 trillion dollars per year.

The total monetary mass in the United States, which includes M1, M2, and M3, was approximately 22 trillion dollars in 2022. As a result, a potential conflict between China and the United States might be a significant inflationary factor, potentially adding up to 10% to the current rate of inflation.