National Bureau of Statistics of China GDP Growth Report (Q1) as of 18 April, 2023 (English translation)

19 Apr 2023 by rate3

In the first quarter, faced with grave and complex international environment as well as arduous tasks to advance reform, development and ensure stability at home, under the strong leadership of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China with Comrade Xi Jinping as the core, all regions and departments strictly implemented the decisions and arrangements made by the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, put economic stability the top priority and pursued progress while ensuring stability, fully and faithfully applied the new development philosophy on all fronts, accelerated the efforts to foster a new development pattern, and focused on promoting high-quality development, better balanced domestic and international imperatives, coordinated the work of COVID-19 prevention and control with economic and social development, ensured both development and security, and gave priority to ensuring stable growth, employment and prices. As a result, a smooth transition in COVID-19 prevention and control to the new phase was secured in a relatively short time, the production and demand registered a stable recovery, employment and prices were kept generally stable, residents income continued to rise, market expectation saw significant improvement and the national economy made a good start.

According to preliminary estimates, the gross domestic product (GDP) in the first quarter reached 28,499.7 billion yuan, up by 4.5 percent year on year at constant price, or up by 2.2 percent over that in the fourth quarter of 2022. By industry, the value added of the primary industry was 1,157.5 billion yuan, up by 3.7 percent year on year; that of the secondary industry was 10,794.7 billion yuan, up by 3.3 percent; and that of the tertiary industry was 16,547.5 billion yuan, up by 5.4 percent.

1. Agricultural Production was Stable and Animal Husbandry Grew Steadily.

In the first quarter, the value added of agriculture (crop farming) witnessed a year-on-year increase of 3.6 percent. The winter wheat had a generally normal growth and the spring farming and preparation were carried out in an orderly manner. According to the year-round planting intention survey, the planting area intended for wheat, rice and corn nationwide was generally stable. In the first quarter, the output of pork, beef, mutton and poultry was 24.56 million tons, up by 2.5 percent year on year. Of this total, the output of pork, beef, mutton and poultry was up by 1.9 percent, 5.1 percent, 5.0 percent and 3.2 percent respectively. The output of milk was up by 8.5 percent and that of eggs up by 2.8 percent. At the end of the first quarter, the number of pigs registered in stock was 430.94 million, up by 2.0 percent year on year; and 198.99 million pigs were slaughtered, up by 1.7 percent in the first quarter.

2. Industrial Production Recovered Gradually and Expectation of Enterprises Improved Generally.

The total value added of industrial enterprises above the designated size grew by 3.0 percent year on year in the first quarter, 0.3 percentage point higher than that in the fourth quarter of 2022. In terms of sectors, the value added of mining increased by 3.2 percent, that of manufacturing increased by 2.9 percent, and that of production and supply of electricity, thermal power, gas and water increased by 3.3 percent. The value added of equipment manufacturing increased by 4.3 percent, 2.5 percentage points higher than that in the first two months. An analysis by types of ownership showed that the value added of state holding enterprises was up by 3.3 percent; that of share-holding enterprises was up by 4.3 percent; that of enterprises funded by foreign investors or investors from Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan was down by 2.7 percent; and that of private enterprises was up by 2.0 percent. In terms of products, the production of solar cells and new-energy automobiles were up by 53.2 percent and 22.5 percent respectively. In March, the value added of industrial enterprises above the designated size grew by 3.9 percent year on year, 1.5 percentage points higher than that in the first two months, or 0.12 percent month on month. In March, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index stood at 51.9 percent, and the Production and Operation Expectation Index was 55.5 percent. In the first two months, the total profits made by industrial enterprises above the designated size were 887.2 billion yuan, down by 22.9 percent year on year.

3. Service Sector Rebounded Markedly and Contact-intensive Services Grew Fast.

In the first quarter, the value added of services went up by 5.4 percent year on year, 3.1 percentage points higher over that in the fourth quarter of 2022. Specifically, the value added of accommodation and catering, information transmission, software and information technology services, financial intermediation, leasing and business services and wholesale and retail grew by 13.6 percent, 11.2 percent, 6.9 percent, 6.0 percent and 5.5 percent respectively. In March, the Index of Services Production increased by 9.2 percent year on year, 3.7 percentage points higher than that in the first two months. Specifically, the Index of Services Production of accommodation and catering, information transmission, software and information technology services and transport, storage and post went up by 29.9 percent, 12.0 percent and 11.9 percent respectively, 18.3 percentage points, 2.7 percentage points and 7.7 percentage points higher than those in the first two months. In the first two months, the business revenue of service enterprises above the designated size grew by 3.4 percent year on year. In March, the Business Activity Index for Services stood at 56.9 percent, and the Business Activity Expectation Index was 63.2 percent. Among which, the Business Activity Index for industries like retail, railway transportation, road transportation, air transportation and leasing and business services were above 60.0 percent.

4. Market Sales Recovered Fast and Upgraded Goods Increased Largely.

In the first quarter, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 11,492.2 billion yuan, up by 5.8 percent year on year and that in the fourth quarter of 2022 was down by 2.7 percent. Analyzed by different areas, the retail sales of consumer goods in urban areas reached 9,966.4 billion yuan, up by 5.7 percent, and that in rural areas 1,525.8 billion yuan, up by 6.2 percent. Grouped by consumption patterns, the retail sales of goods were 10,278.6 billion yuan, up by 4.9 percent; the income of catering was 1,213.6 billion yuan, up by 13.9 percent. Goods for basic living enjoyed good sales, with the retail sales of clothes, shoes, hats, and textiles and of grain, oil and food by enterprises above the designated size up by 9.0 percent and 7.5 percent respectively. The sales of upgraded goods went up markedly. The retail sales of gold, silver and jewelry and of books, newspaper and magazines by enterprises above the designated size grew by 13.6 percent and 13.4 percent respectively. The online retail sales reached 3,286.3 billion yuan, up by 8.6 percent. Specifically, the online retail sales of physical goods were 2,783.5 billion yuan, up by 7.3 percent, accounting for 24.2 percent of the total retail sales of consumer goods. In March, the total retail sales of consumer goods went up by 10.6 percent year on year, 7.1 percentage points higher than that in the first two months, or up by 0.15 percent month on month.

5. Investment in Fixed Assets Increased Steadily and Investment in High-tech Industries Grew Fast.

In the first quarter, the investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households) reached 10,728.2 billion yuan, up by 5.1 percent year on year, the same as that of the previous year. Specifically, the investment in infrastructure grew by 8.8 percent year on year; that in manufacturing grew by 7.0 percent; and that in real estate development declined by 5.8 percent. The floor space of commercial buildings sold reached 299.46 million square meters, down by 1.8 percent; and the total sales of commercial buildings were 3,054.5 billion yuan, up by 4.1 percent. By industry, the investment in the primary industry went up by 0.5 percent, that in the secondary industry up by 8.7 percent, and that in the tertiary industry up by 3.6 percent. The private investment went up by 0.6 percent. The investment in high-tech industries grew by 16.0 percent, of which the investment in high-tech manufacturing and high-tech services grew by 15.2 percent and 17.8 percent respectively. In terms of high-tech manufacturing, the investment in manufacturing of electronic and communication equipment and in manufacturing of medical equipment, measuring instrument and meter grew by 20.7 percent and 19.9 percent respectively. In terms of high-tech services, the investment in e-commerce services and services for transformation of scientific and technological achievements grew by 51.5 percent and 51.3 percent respectively. The investment in social sectors grew by 8.3 percent. Specifically, the investment in health and education grew by 21.6 percent and 6.2 percent respectively. In March, the investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households) declined by 0.25 percent month on month.

6. Imports and Exports of Goods Kept Growing and Trade Structure Continued to Optimize.

In the first quarter, the total value of imports and exports of goods was 9,887.7 billion yuan, an increase of 4.8 percent year on year. The total value of exports was 5,648.4 billion yuan, up by 8.4 percent. The total value of imports was 4,239.3 billion yuan, up by 0.2 percent. The trade balance was 1,409.0 billion yuan in surplus. The imports and exports of general trade increased by 7.9 percent, accounting for 65.3 percent of the total value of the imports and exports, 1.9 percentage points higher than that of the same period last year. The imports and exports by private enterprises grew by 14.4 percent, accounting for 52.4 percent of the total value of imports and exports. In March, the total value of imports and exports was 3,709.4 billion yuan, up by 15.5 percent year on year. The total value of exports was 2,155.2 billion yuan, up by 23.4 percent; that of imports was 1,554.2 billion yuan, up by 6.1 percent.

7. Consumer Price Rose Mildly and Producer Prices for Industrial Products Dropped Year on Year.

In the first quarter, the consumer price index (CPI) rose by 1.3 percent year on year. Grouped by commodity categories, prices for food, tobacco and alcohol went up by 2.9 percent year on year; clothing up by 0.7 percent; housing down by 0.2 percent; articles and services for daily use up by 1.2 percent; transportation and communication up by 0.1 percent; education, culture and recreation up by 1.7 percent; medical services and health care up by 0.9 percent; and other articles and services up by 2.7 percent. In terms of food, tobacco and alcohol prices, the price for fresh fruit up by 11.0 percent, pork up by 8.5 percent, grain up by 2.5 percent and fresh vegetable down by 2.9 percent. The core CPI excluding the price of food and energy grew by 0.8 percent year on year . In March, the consumer price index went up by 0.7 percent year on year and down by 0.3 percent month on month.

In the first quarter, the producer prices for industrial products went down by 1.6 percent year on year. Specifically, the prices in March dropped by 2.5 percent year on year, or maintained the same level month on month. In the first quarter, the purchasing prices for industrial producers went down by 0.8 percent year on year; specifically in March, the prices dropped by 1.8 percent year on year, or maintained the same month on month.

8. Employment Was Generally Stable and Surveyed Unemployment Rate in Urban Areas Declined.

In the first quarter, the urban surveyed unemployment rate averaged 5.5 percent, down by 0.1 percentage points over that of the fourth quarter last year. In March, the surveyed unemployment rate in urban areas was 5.3 percent, down by 0.3 percentage points over that of the previous month. The surveyed unemployment rate of population with local household registration was 5.1 percent and that of population with non-local household registration was 5.6 percent, of which, the rate of population with non-local agricultural household registration stood at 5.3 percent. Specifically, the surveyed unemployment rate of population aged from 16 to 24 and from 25 to 59 was 19.6 percent and 4.3 percent respectively. Among the population aged from 25 to 59, the surveyed unemployment rates of the population with junior secondary school education or below, with senior secondary school education, with junior college education, with university education or above were 4.8 percent, 4.8 percent, 4.0 percent and 3.1 percent respectively. The urban surveyed unemployment rate in 31 major cities was 5.5 percent, 0.2 percentage points lower than that of the previous month. The employees of enterprises worked 48.7 hours per week on average. By the end of the first quarter, the number of rural migrant workers totaled 181.95 million.

9. Residents Income Increased Steadily and Income of Rural Residents Grew Faster than That of Urban Residents.

In the first quarter, the nationwide per capita disposable income of residents was 10,870 yuan, a nominal growth of 5.1 percent year on year, 0.1 percentage point faster than that of the previous year; the real growth was 3.8 percent after deducting price factors. In terms of permanent residence, the per capita disposable income of urban households was 14,388 yuan, a nominal growth of 4.0 percent year on year and a real growth of 2.7 percent; the per capita disposable income of rural households was 6,131 yuan, a nominal growth of 6.1 percent year on year and a real growth of 4.8 percent. In terms of income source, the nationwide per capita salary income, net business income, net property income and net income from transfers grew by 5.0 percent, 5.8 percent, 4.1 percent and 5.1 percent in nominal terms respectively. The median of the nationwide per capita disposable income of residents was 8,895 yuan with a nominal growth of 4.6 percent year on year.

Generally speaking, in the first quarter, as the COVID-19 prevention and control shifted to the new phase in a rapid and steady way, multiple policies and measures to stabilize growth, employment and prices took effect early on and positive factors kept accumulating, the national economy showed a steady recovery and made a good start. However, we must be aware that the situation abroad is still complex and volatile, inadequate domestic demand remains prominent and the foundation for economic recovery is not solid yet. At the next stage, we must take Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era as the guideline, fully implement the guiding principles of the 20th CPC National Congress, the first and second plenary session of the 20th CPC Central Committee, act in line with the plans and arrangements made at the Central Economic Work Conference and the Two Sessions (National People’s Congress and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference), make economic stability the top agenda and pursue progress while ensuring stability. We must fully and faithfully apply the new development philosophy on all fronts, accelerate efforts to create a new pattern of development, strive to pursue high-quality development, and implement macro policies in a scientific and targeted manner, and unleash the potential of domestic demand through a variety of means and channels. We need to intensify efforts to deepen the reforms, promote high-standard opening up, advance the overall improvement of the economic performance continuously and endeavor to achieve effective enhancement of quality and reasonable growth of quantity so as to ensure a good start for building a modern socialist country in all respects.

Notes:

1. The growth rate of GDP and its sub-items are calculated at constant prices. The growth rates of value added of industrial enterprises above designated size and its sub-items are calculated at comparable prices. Both are real growth rates. The growth rates of other indicators are nominal growth by using current prices unless otherwise specified.

2. According to the auto-revision function of the seasonal adjustment model, revisions are made to quarter-on-quarter growth of GDP and to month-on-month changes of the value added of industrial enterprises above designated size, investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households), and total retail sales of consumer goods. The revised figures, quarter-on-quarter GDP growth for the first quarter of 2023 and month-on-month changes of other indicators for March 2023 are as follows:

The quarter-on-quarter growth of GDP in 2022 and in the first quarter of 2023 are 0.8 percent, -2.3 percent, 3.9 percent, 0.6 percent and 2.2 percent respectively.