SVET Reports
Thursday's Markets Update (August 24, 2023)
On Thursday, Durable goods orders hinted at an upcoming recession. This was combined with technicals (an over-extended correction) and general trader nervousness ahead of Powell's Friday speech in Jackson Hole. As a result, the Nasdaq plummeted to almost 2%. BTC, meanwhile, stayed happily in limbo, waiting for more catalysts. In other news, Binance will stop servicing its crypto debit cards in Latin America and the Middle East.
Details
New orders for manufactured durable goods in the US fell sharply in July, led by a decline in demand for transport equipment. Orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft edged up.
Comment
The US economy continues to deteriorate, while Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is still looking in the rearview mirror. He is orienting himself by the unemployment rate, which everyone knows will be the last to increase. By the time the unemployment rate does increase, it will be too late for the Fed to react, because the irreversible damage to businesses will have already been done.
Everyone who is familiar with the realities of business knows this, but the Fed is ruled by politically engaged "theoreticians" who have never done anything productive in their lives. That is why it is so easy for them to destroy the work of others. Artificial intelligence (AI) will not cure the system. We need to destroy it ourselves before it destroys us.
FYI:
The US economy shrank by 1.4% in the first quarter of 2023.
The unemployment rate is currently at 3.6%, but economists expect it to increase to 4% by the end of the year.
Small businesses are particularly vulnerable to economic downturns, and many are already facing layoffs and closures.
The Fed's current policy of raising interest rates is unlikely to be enough to prevent a recession. In fact, it could even make the situation worse by choking off economic growth. The only way to truly fix the system is to rebuild it from the ground up, and that is something that we the people need to do ourselves.
Crypto
Binance will discontinue its crypto debit card services in Latin America and the Middle East. Binance has not provided a reason for the decision, but it is possible that the company is facing regulatory challenges in these regions.
Comment
As I mentioned in my previous comment, we are all facing a new reality in which cryptocurrencies are being harshly persecuted in almost all countries. Whether we like it or not, most of us will have to make a crucial decision: whether to stay firm with the decentralized movement against plutocrats and face rising risks on all fronts for an indefinite period of time, or to give up and return to the mainstream. What will your decision be?
Macroeconomic
Tokyo's core inflation rate rose 2.8% year-on-year in August 2023, slowing from 3% in July. The rate has surpassed the Bank of Japan's 2% target for 15 consecutive months, putting pressure on policymakers to phase out monetary stimulus. However, BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda has ruled out an early exit, saying that wages need to rise enough to keep inflation sustainable.
Comment
Despite growing pressure from the so-called "world's financial bodies," Bank of Japan (BOJ) governors remain firm in their relatively reasonable approach. They are trying to give the Japanese economy time to adjust to a series of extraordinary external shocks. This stands in sharp contrast to the Federal Reserve (Fed) elders' madness, who are trying to "steer" markets as if they were their own family van on a sightseeing voyage.
If we are stuck with the outdated system of authoritarian price-making on financial markets for the foreseeable future, we might at least start praising those central banking autocrats who remain a bit saner than the rest of their clique.
By the way, one of my proposals for an early Fed reform (before we completely get rid of that useless and increasingly dangerous sinecure) is to return complete autonomy to all 12 regional banks, exactly as it was intended in 1913.