Thursday's Markets Update (December 28, 2023)

28 Dec 2023 by rate3

On Thursday, the Nasdaq 100, Dow Jones, and S&P 500 all gained, with the Nasdaq Composite up 44% YTD, the most since 2003, due to mega-cap tech stocks and the AI trend. Unemployment claims increased to 218K, above the predicted 210K. Meanwhile, BTC and ETH are still trading within their month-old ranges, unable to break out above 45K and 2.5K, respectively. This situation raises the question of whether there might be massive profit-taking in January as a 'sell-the-news' event.

Details

Unemployment claims rose unexpectedly in late December, with 218,000 people filing for benefits, higher than the predicted 210,000. Continuing claims also increased to a one-month high of 1,875,000. This may indicate a slight weakening in the labor market and could suggest that the Federal Reserve may start cutting interest rates in early 2024.

The 10-year Treasury note yield hovered near 3.8% on new economic data indicating a likely Fed's rate cut in early 2024. Fed funds futures suggest a 90% chance of a rate cut by Q1 2024. Bond indices have rallied since Nov, best performances since 1990.

Crypto

Binance's user base grew 30% in 2023, despite regulatory settlements and the departure of its founder. The exchange saw increased activity on its platform, including growth in its Pay and Earn products, and interest from institutional investors.

Comment: SEC is, basically, useless.

The reported 30% spike in Binance's user base is just another slap in the face for useless bureaucrats, especially the SEC. Their attempts to "regulate" contemporary markets are nothing more than a joke. These old folks claim they're safeguarding customers, but in reality, users are rightfully ignoring their irrelevant attempts.

The only goal of these bureaucratic agents is to gain unfair political advantages and boost their net worth. They do so at the expense of the youngest and most vulnerable private capital holders globally. Their so-called regulations only serve to cut off access to the most profitable investment opportunities.

It's a blatant disregard for the potential and intelligence of private investors. People are smart enough to navigate the markets without being hampered by outdated regulations imposed by self-serving bureaucrats. The reported growth in Binance's user base is a testament to users refusing to be dictated by these bureaucratic impositions.

Commodities

Aluminum futures reached an 8-month high of $2,400/tonne in Dec, ending the year up due to supply concerns and a late-year recovery. Prices fell earlier due to macroeconomic issues in major manufacturing countries. Norsk Hydro and Alcoa reported falling sales and losses, but Chinese stimulus and a Guinean explosion led to a late rally.

World's Economy

European stocks were stable with the STOXX 50 at a 23-year high and STOXX 600 near a 23-month high, due to expected rate cuts from US and European central banks in 2024. Global shipping activity increased and UK retail footfall rose 4% post-holidays. STOXX 50 and 600 may gain nearly 19% and 13% in 2023, respectively.

FYI: The STOXX 50, also known as the EURO STOXX 50, is a stock market index that represents the performance of the 50 largest and most liquid stocks from 11 Eurozone countries.

Palestine's Q3 2023 (prior the war) GDP grew 3% YoY, maintaining Q2's rate. Agriculture, wholesale & retail trade, public administration, and services slowed. Mining, manufacturing, construction, and information & communication increased. Quarterly GDP rose 1%, driven by mining, manufacturing, and electricity.