Tuesday's Markets Report (January 30, 2024)

31 Jan 2024 by rate3

On Tuesday, job openings increased, while the Dallas Fed reported a drop in service sector activity and home prices continued to rise, dampening hopes for a 25bps rate cut by the Fed. As a result, stocks were mixed: the S&P 500 and Nasdaq declined, while the Dow Jones edged slightly higher. Corporate earnings were also mixed, with UPS sinking and GM soaring. Microsoft, Nvidia, and Meta hit all-time highs.

On world markets, the German economy entered a technical recession, while the EU zone still showed barely perceptible growth. The Mexican economy slowed. The crypto market was mostly in green, with Chainlink surging above 4%, followed by Solana at +3.5%. Ethereum showed a +3% increase, while Bitcoin's gain was less than 1%.

Details

The number of job openings in December 2023 surged to 9.026 million, up 101K from the previous month and above consensus. Professional and business services saw a gain, but wholesale trade experienced a decrease. Job openings increased in the South (+115K) and Northeast (+12K) but decreased in the Midwest (-22K) and West (-4K).(BLS)
The Dallas Fed's service sector index for Texas fell to -9.3 in January, suggesting worsening business conditions. The outlook and revenue indexes also declined, while labor market measures showed continued employment growth with shorter work weeks. Input and selling price pressures eased, while wage growth remained unchanged.(Dallas Fed)
Home prices rose 5.4% year-on-year in November, but fell 0.2% month-on-month, with Detroit and San Diego reporting the highest gains and Portland the only city with declining prices. Seattle (-1.4%) and San Francisco (-1.3%) had the largest declines MoM. (SP)

Crypto

Blockchain analysts report that Grayscale has slowed BTC transfers to Coinbase, amid a rising price for the asset. The current BTC value from the recent transfer is below $200 million, representing less than half of last week's average daily volume. (source)

World Markets

The Euro Area had a small gain in Q4 2023 while the overall trend has been down since January 2022. France (0.7%) and Italy (0.5%) leading the expansion and Spain (2%) and Portugal (2.2%) experiencing strong growth. Germany's economy shrank while Ireland (-4.8%) recorded a steep decline.(EUROSTAT)
Germany's economy shrunk by 0.2% in Q4 2023, in line with expectations, and entered a technical recession due to rising prices and borrowing costs. (Federal Statistical Office)
Mexico's GDP expanded by 2.4% in Q4 2023, slower than expected and lower than the previous quarter. Primary, secondary, and service sectors saw slower growth, with 2023 growth at 3.1% compared to 3.9% in 2022. (INEGI)

Commodities

Nickel futures continued its downward movement even after China's stimulus announcement and Nornickel's production forecast. The overall trend remains bearish due to excess supply from world's top exporters, Indonesia, Philippines and China. As the International Nickel Study Group forecasts, in 2023 metal's excess supply was 223K metric tons and is expected to widen to 239K in 2024.