Friday's Markets Update (March 15, 2024)

15 Mar 2024 by rate3

On Friday, stocks fell on the triple witching expiration due to a tech sell-off and concerns over a Fed rate hike. Amazon and Microsoft led the decline. Despite the daily drop, the market saw small weekly gains. On the world's markets, the central bank of China kept its key rate unchanged at 2.5%. The crypto market was in the deep red as BTC plunged below 70K on traders' following stocks. Among major alts, only Solana (+5%), Avalanche (+5%), and Binance (+1%) showed a positive dynamic.

Details

Manufacturing activity in New York State plunged in March, with the Empire State Index reaching a much worse than expected -20.9 (down from -2.4 in February). This reflects a significant decline in demand, new orders, shipments, and unfilled orders. Employment and working hours also weakened. Despite some hope for future improvement, overall sentiment among firms is cautious. (NYFed)
Consumer confidence dips slightly to 76.5 in March, a 3-month low. Mixed signals: modest decline in business condition expectations, flat current conditions. Inflation expectations remain unchanged. Consumers cautious about long-term outlook due to upcoming elections. (UM)

Crypto

The Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC) recently passed a new Digital Assets Law, aiming to: clearly define regulations for those using and investing in digital assets; modernize the DIFC to attract international investment; establish the DIFC as a hub for innovation in digital assets and blockchain technology. However, it's unlikely that any of bureaucrats 'regulatory initiatives' will really improve anything except for bureaucrats themselves. However, you can read this law yourself and make your own conclusions. (Dubai's Digital Assets Law also other Digital laws are accessible here)
Bank of America reports record investments: the groundbreaking inflow in stocks of $56.1 billion, the highest ever for a single week; significant milestone with $3.4 billion in crypto-investments. (source)

World Markets

China's central bank kept interest rates steady at 2.5%. This aimed to stabilize the yuan (down 1.3% vs. USD this year). (BoC)

India's trade gap widens to $18.7 billion despite strong export growth (11.9% YoY). Imports surged even faster (12.2% YoY) due to robust domestic demand and higher oil prices. Officials remain optimistic about exports holding steady. (IC)
French inflation dipped slightly to 3% annually in February (down from 3.1%). This is the lowest level since early 2022, driven by slower price increases in food, manufactured goods, and services. However, energy costs, particularly electricity and fuel, are rising faster, causing a 0.8% jump in monthly consumer prices. While a slight improvement is seen, rising energy prices remain a concern. (INSEE)

Currencies

Japanese yen weakens against the dollar (below 148.5) as traders anticipate the Bank of Japan's policy decision. Rumors suggest the bank might end negative rates due to wage growth, but the market seems to expect this already. Governor Ueda acknowledges a moderate economic recovery with some data showing weakness.

On Week 12 it gets busy: Fed meeting on 20th of March: Economic forecasts, interest rate projections in focus Macro data: Manufacturing, services activity, housing market on watch. Global focus: Interest rate decisions in several countries (Japan, UK, etc.). Inflation: Data releases from Canada, UK, South Africa, Japan. Purchasing Managers' Indexes (PMIs): Flash updates from various regions. China: Key economic indicators like industrial production, retail sales, and investment monitored.