Monday's Markets Update (March 18, 2024)

18 Mar 2024 by rate3

On Monday, stocks rebounded as investors focused on AI advancements ahead of the Fed meeting, overshadowing interest rate hike concerns underpinned by homebuilders' rising confidence. Apple and Alphabet benefited from news of AI integration. On the world's markets, Chinese manufacturing sector added 7% unexpectedly, while oil prices continued to grow on worsening geopolitics and lower supplies. The crypto market was in the red, experiencing a continuing correction with BTC hovering slightly above 67K and ETH dipping below 3.5K. Among major alts, only Avalanche (+7%) continued to rise.

Details

Homebuilder confidence jumps to 8-month high (51) in March as low existing inventory pushes buyers to new construction. Mortgage rate dip below fall's peak further fuels demand. (NAHB)

Crypto

Digital assets see record inflows for two straight weeks, reaching $2.9 billion last week. This pushes the yearly total to $13.2 billion, surpassing 2021's bull run. BTC dominates with nearly all inflows (99.9%), while overall trading volume remains steady at $43B - 47% of overall global BTC volumes. (source)
Despite China's strict crypto regulations, Chinese investors made $1.15B, contributing to the global total of nearly $38B. The US remains the leader with $9.4 billion in crypto earnings, followed by the UK at $1.4B. Hong Kong, a part of China, also saw significant crypto activity with $250M in gains. (source)
BlackRock's BTC trust sees high trading activity with an average daily trade size of $13K, suggesting retail investor interest (~250K trades in a day, a trade size is ~326 shares, or ~$13K). (source)
El Salvador accumulated over $65 million in unrealized BTC profit. According to a survey conducted by the Central American University, only 12% of the local population have used BTC at least once to pay for goods and services in 2023. (source)

World Markets

China's manufacturing output roared back in Jan-Feb, growing 7% YoY, exceeding expectations (5%) by far. This is the fastest pace in nearly two years, driven by strong manufacturing and utilities. (CN)

Currencies

Brazilian real tumbles to a 4-month low (over 5 per USD) as investors weigh potential interest rate cuts in Brazil vs. expected hikes by the Fed.

Commodities

Oil prices jump 2% to hit a high of $82.72 per barrel (highest since October) due to several factors: lower exports from Iraq and Saudi Arabia, signs of rising demand in China and the US, and ongoing geopolitical tensions impacting supply.
Copper prices surge to a new high since April 2023 (above $4.1 per pound) on strong Chinese economic data (factory output +7%, retail sales +5.5% yoy). Smelter production cuts due to low concentrate prices also contribute to the rise. However, a 9% decline in property investment remains a concern.