Monday's Markets Update (April 15, 2024)

15 Apr 2024 by rate3

On Monday, stocks dipped to their month-low levels due to rising retail sales and a marginally stabilizing manufacturing slowdown. Globally, commodities continued to rally amidst worsening geopolitics, particularly with price rises for aluminum (due to new sanctions), tin, and rice. BTC and ETH attempted to recover after the weekend's crash stemming from the Middle Eastern conflict escalation, but remained under 64K and 3.1K, respectively, under bearish pressure, fearing a repetition of the 2021 BTC double top pattern.

Details

NY manufacturing showed some signs of improvement in April, but remained in contraction (-14.3). New orders, shipments and employment kept falling. Prices rose and businesses are cautiously optimistic about the future. (NYFed)
Retail sales rose modestly in March (0.7%), exceeding expectations (0.3%). Sales at non-store retailers, gas stations, and building material stores led the gains. Sales fell for electronics, clothing, and autos. Overall, consumer spending remains resilient. (Census)

Crypto

A surprising number of survey participants (over half from 2.4th crypto investors surveyed by Kpmg) invest heavily in digital assets, putting more than a quarter of their wealth into them. While some (34%) feel secure about these investments, Bitcoin (91%) and Ethereum (78%) remain the clear favorites. (Kpmg)

World Markets

El Salvador's inflation continued to slow down in March 2024, reaching a 15-month low of 0.77%. This was driven by falling prices for healthcare, miscellaneous goods, furnishings, and communications. However, food, restaurants, and housing prices rose slightly. Overall, monthly inflation remained low at 0.06%.

Currencies

The US dollar surged to a five-month high (106) on Monday. Strong US retail sales and inflation data fueled expectations that the Fed will hold off on interest rate cuts. Geopolitical tensions initially boosted the dollar's safe-haven appeal, but eased as tensions subsided.

Commodities

Aluminum prices soared 10% to 2.7K to a new high on supply worries due to sanctions. The US and UK banned new Russian aluminum, aiming to curb Russia's war funding. But analysts say this might not stop sales and could create market uncertainty.
Rice prices jumped to a near-term high on worries about limited supply (4.9 million tonnes in the 2024/25 season). Bad weather and export curbs from India are causing concern, despite a slight increase in global rice production expected this year. The market is hopeful things will improve after India's election and a global rice surplus is expected next season.
Tin prices jumped to a new high since June 2022 due to limited supplies. Sanctions on Russia, along with disruptions in DR Congo, Indonesia and Myanmar, squeezed supply. Strong factory data in the US and China fueled demand for tin and other base metals.