Thursday's Markets Update (August 15, 2024)

15 Aug 2024 by rate3

On Thursday, stocks surged, boosted by stronger-than-expected retail sales. Investors are less worried about a recession, despite a sharp drop in manufacturing output. Tech and retail giants like Cisco, Walmart, and Apple led the rally. Globally, oil and gold continued to appreciate due to geopolitical factors. BTC and ETH declined again, driven by technical trends.

Details

Retail sales surged +1% in July, beating expectations. Car sales led the gains, followed by electronics and appliances. Grocery, home improvement, and personal care items also saw increases. However, sales of miscellaneous items, sporting goods, and clothing declined. 1Y trend: "Side" (CB)
Jobless claims unexpectedly fell for the second straight week, defying recent labor market slowdown concerns. The decline adds pressure on the Federal Reserve to maintain its hawkish stance on inflation. 1Y trend: "Up" (DOL)
New York manufacturing activity slightly improved in August. Orders fell, but shipments held steady. Delivery times shortened, and inventories declined. Job market remains weak with fewer hours worked. Input prices rose slowly, while selling prices stayed low. Businesses are optimistic about the future. 1Y trend: "Up" (NY)
Manufacturing activity in the 3d District contracted sharply in August, according to the Philadelphia Fed index. Shipments, new orders, and employment all slowed significantly. Prices continued to rise, but at a slower pace. Future outlook is bleak, with expectations of a broader decline in the next six months. 1Y trend: "Up" (PH)
Retail sales surged in July (+1% MoM, +2.7% YoY), beating expectations. Car sales led the gains, followed by electronics and appliances. Grocery, home improvement, and personal care items also saw increases. However, sales of miscellaneous items and sporting goods declined. 1Y trend: "Side" (Census)
In July, industrial production dropped by 0.6%, the largest decline in six months, reversing June's 0.3% growth and exceeding market expectations of a 0.3% decrease. 1Y trend: "Side" (FED)
In August , the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index in dropped to 39, its lowest point this year, down from a revised 41 in July and below the expected 43. This decline in builder sentiment is attributed to affordability issues, high home prices, and elevated interest rates.(Nahb)

World Markets

Philippines central bank surprised markets by cutting interest rates by 25 bps to 6.25% despite recent inflation rise. The economy grew faster, but inflation is expected to ease. This move aims to support economic growth. 1Y trend: "Up" (BSP)
In July, China's industrial production grew by 5.1% YoY, slightly below the expected 5.2% and down from 5.3% in June. This marked the third consecutive month of slowing growth and the lowest rate since March, driven by reduced manufacturing and utility output. Despite the slowdown, 33 of 41 major sectors saw growth, with notable increases in coal, chemicals, and electronics. 1Y trend: "Up" (CS)

Commodities

Gold prices rose after a dip, boosted by expectations of Fed rate cuts. Lower-than-expected US inflation tempered rate cut hopes, slightly cooling gold's rally. However, geopolitical tensions and gold's safe-haven appeal continue to support prices. 1Y trend: "Up"
Brent crude oil prices rose, boosted by stronger-than-expected US economic data and easing recession fears. However, gains were limited by unexpected increases in US oil inventories and geopolitical tensions. 1Y trend: "Side"