SVET Reports
Monday's Markets Update (September 9, 2024)
On Monday, stocks attempted to rebound after a rough week, driven by investor optimism about lower prices and a potential rate cut. Investors are now focused on Wednesday's inflation data to gauge the Fed's upcoming policy decision on September 18. Internationally, the Chinese yuan weakened as the latest inflation data showed weak economic performance despite the CPC's efforts. BTC crossed above 57K, while ETH lingers above 2.3k, continuing to lag significantly behind BTC after three consecutive "red" months—the worst performance for ETH since 2018. In other news, El Salvador is marking the third anniversary of its BTC holdings, with more than 25% overall profits on its 5,800 BTC holding, placing it third in the world among governments.
Details
Consumer credit surged by 25.45B in July, exceeding expectations (12.5). Credit card balances and other loans both saw significant increases, indicating strong demand for credit despite economic concerns. 1Y trend: "Side" (source)
Crypto
El Salvador made its first BTC purchase in September 6, 2021, shortly before adopting BTC as legal tender. Since then, the country has significantly increased its BTC holdings. As of now, El Salvador owns over 5,800 BTC, with substantial profits (25.88% gain). The country is currently the third-largest government holder of BTC globally.
World Markets
Japan's GDP grew by 0.7% at a stronger pace in Q2 2024 than previously expected, mainly due to higher wages and a recovery in the automotive industry. While private consumption and business investment increased, government spending and net trade contributed less to the growth. 1Y trend: "Down" (CAO)
Taiwan's exports surged 16.8% in August, driven by strong sales of technology products. Shipments to the US, ASEAN, Europe, and China & Hong Kong all increased significantly. Overall, exports for the first eight months of 2024 were up 10.9% compared to the previous year. 1Y trend: "Up" (MOF)
Currencies
The dollar remained relatively stable as investors weighed the potential for a Fed interest rate cut on upcoming September 18 meeting. The recent jobs report showed mixed results, with fewer jobs added than expected but a lower unemployment rate and steady wage growth. Markets are divided on the size of the rate cut, with some expecting a larger reduction. Investors will closely watch inflation data this week for more clues on the Fed's decision. 1Y trend: "Side"
The Chinese yuan weakened against the dollar (7.11) as inflation data revealed a modest increase in consumer prices but a sharper decline in producer prices. This indicates a challenging economic environment for China, with weak domestic demand and slowing growth. 1Y trend: "Side"
Commodities
Natural gas prices dropped 4% due to an incoming storm expected to reduce demand in Louisiana. The storm could cause power outages and disrupt LNG exports. While past hurricanes impacted supply, today's storms mainly affect demand as most US gas comes from inland sources. Oversupply and mild winter weather have also contributed to lower prices. Production cuts have helped stabilize prices. 1Y trend: "Side"
Comment: What's Up With Japan?
The Japanese yen has slipped toward 143 per dollar; however, it remains far from the record highs of 300 reached during the peak of Japan's economic miracle in the 1980s, before the Plaza Accord, which devastated Japanese manufacturing.
Recently, the Japan Stock Market Index (JP225) achieved an all-time high (ATH) above 40,000, driven by a continuing appreciation of Japanese assets. Notably, this rise in asset values has not been accompanied by corresponding GDP growth, which has consistently stayed below 2%—a stark contrast to the impressive 8% growth experienced during the 1980s boom.
Traditionally, Japan’s unemployment rate has been very low, ranging from 2% to 3%, and was even below 2% during the 1980s. The rate tends to reach a maximum of approximately 5% during times of crisis, such as between 2007 and 2010. This low unemployment situation indicates a limited pool of additional labor resources available for Japanese entrepreneurs to enhance local productivity.
In terms of inflation, Japan has also historically maintained low annual rates. As of July 2024, the inflation rate was recorded at 2.8%. However, this is significantly lower than the peak inflation rates of around 25% in the 1970s and 10% in the 1980s. The Japanese central bank has sustained a very loose monetary policy, keeping interest rates below 1% since the 1990s, compared to an 8% rate in the 1980s. Despite this accommodative policy, economic growth has remained elusive.
Business confidence in Japan has been notably weak, rarely surpassing the 20 mark and remaining mostly below zero since the 1990s. Similarly, consumer confidence has been on a downward trend on average since the 1980s, declining from a level of 50 to recent figures of approximately 20 to 30.
In summary, the Japanese economy serves as a poignant example of how countries with limited natural resources but high-value human capital and excellent technological capabilities can mismanage their economic potential. This mismanagement is often driven by ingrained nationalistic tendencies and overly conservative political attitudes that shy away from "risky" initiatives and revolutionary social and political reforms.