Thursday's Markets Update (September 19, 2024)

19 Sep 2024 by rate3

On Thursday, stocks surged, fueled by optimism about a soft economic landing following the Fed's rate cut, which was supported by a decline in weekly jobless claims. The Dow (42,000) and S&P reached new ATHs, led by tech stocks and sectors tied to economic growth. Internationally, several major stock indexes, including Germany's DAX, India's SENSEX, and Australia's ASX200, hit new ATHs. At the same time, there might be a divergence in main central banks' monetary policies, as the Bank of England left interest rates steady at 5%. Meanwhile, ETH (+4%) closed above 2.4K, outperforming BTC (63K, +2%) for the first time in several months, while the rest of the crypto market followed with SOL, BCH, and AVAX rising more than 7%.

Details

The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index rebounded in September to 1.7 from -7, but remained below optimistic forecasts. While current activity improved, new orders and shipments declined. Employment rose, and prices continued to increase. Businesses remain optimistic about future growth. 1Y trend: "Up" (PhFed)
Existing home sales declined in August despite lower mortgage rates. The median home price decreased to $416,900, and the inventory of unsold homes increased. 1Y trend: "Down" (NAR)

Crypto

Coinbase's Stand With Crypto initiative has potentially registered over 140,000 people to vote in the 2024 elections through its voter registration tool. The campaign has seen significant engagement since its launch. (source)

World Markets

Passenger car registrations in the EU declined sharply in August, reversing sharply by 18.3% the growth seen in July. All major markets experienced double-digit declines, with Germany and France suffering the steepest drops. Battery electric car registrations also fell significantly (-43.9%), with market share decreasing. However, overall car registrations for the year remained slightly positive, driven by growth in the first half. 1Y trend: "Up" (Acea)
The Bank of England held its interest rate steady at 5% in September, despite expectations for a small cut. Inflation is expected to rise slightly due to energy price comparisons. Wage growth slowed, and GDP growth is forecast to recover. The Bank also decided to reduce its bond holdings by £100 billion. 1Y trend: "Up" (UK)
The South African Reserve Bank cut its interest rate by 25 basis points to 8% due to easing inflation (4.4%). It's SARB's first policy easing since 2020. The central bank expects inflation to remain below its target range and economic growth to improve. 1Y trend: "Side"
The Central Bank of Turkey kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 50% in August, despite slowing inflation. While the bank acknowledged the inflationary risks posed by high inflation expectations, it also noted the positive impact of high interest rates on domestic demand. The central bank emphasized its flexibility to adjust monetary policy as needed, indicating a potential shift away from its previous stance of only raising rates in response to economic challenges. 1Y trend: "Up" (TR)
Malaysia's trade surplus narrowed significantly in August (to MYR 5.7B from 17.2B YoY), falling to the lowest level in six years. Imports surged, while exports grew at a slower pace. For the first eight months of 2024, the trade surplus declined by nearly 50%, with imports outpacing exports. 1Y trend: "Down" (Dosm)