Monday's Markets Update (October 14, 2024)

15 Oct 2024 by rate3

On Monday, equities rose, with the Dow and S&P reaching new ATHs. The Nasdaq also gained. Tech, utilities, and real estate sectors led the gains, while energy declined. The dollar reached a 2-month high. China's exports hit a 5-month low as India's inflation jumped to its highest in 9 months. ETH outperformed BTC (66K), reaching 2.6K, fueled by enthusiasm following a narrowing in the presidential race.

Crypto

Crypto investors are more bullish on BTC, pouring $419M into ETF funds previous week. This shift from negative flows is attributed to a perceived increase in the likelihood of a GOP-led White House. Investors are now prioritizing presidential politics over economic data. (source)

World Markets

China's trade surplus widened to $81.71 billion in September, exceeding expectations but slowing from August. Exports grew, though at the slowest pace in five months. Imports fell due to weak domestic demand. The surplus with the US narrowed to $33.33 billion. For the first nine months, the overall surplus was $689.5 billion, with exports up 4.3% and imports up 2.2%. The surplus with the US was $257.87 billion. 1Y trend: "Down" (CN)
China's banks extended $1.59 trillion in new loans in September, exceeding August but falling short of expectations. It was the lowest September loan total since 2018, raising concerns about Beijing's ability to stimulate the economy and achieve its 5% growth target. Total social financing met expectations, but outstanding loan growth slowed to 8.1% from 8.5% in August. 1Y trend: "Down" (source)
India's inflation rose to 5.49% in September, exceeding expectations and the RBI's target of 4%. Food prices surged, contributing significantly to the increase. Housing costs rose, while fuel prices fell less sharply. The CPI rose 0.6% from August. 1Y trend: "Down" (IN)

Currencies

The dollar index rose, nearing its highest levels in two months. Expectations for smaller Fed rate cuts increased after strong jobs and inflation data. While higher jobless claims and slowing producer inflation offered some counterargument, markets still see an 87% chance of a 25 basis point cut in November. Investors await retail sales, jobless claims, and Waller's remarks. 1Y trend: "Side"

Commodities

Natural gas prices dropped to $2.48/MMBtu, extending a decline from a three-month high. Hurricane Milton reduced demand in Florida due to power outages, while mild weather curbed demand elsewhere. A smaller-than-expected storage injection offered some support, but robust supply and uncertainty about hurricane's impact kept prices low. Cooler weather forecasts in some regions provided short-term stabilization. 1Y trend: "Up"
Sugar prices rose slightly, recovering from a three-week low. Concerns about low supply due to drought in Brazil and geopolitical tensions supported prices. Brazilian sugar output fell 16% in late September, and traders lowered production estimates for the year. The diversion of sugarcane for ethanol production also limited sugar supply. 1Y trend: "Down"