Friday's Markets Update (November 1, 2024)

02 Nov 2024 by rate3

On Friday, stocks closed higher, with Amazon and Intel leading the gains after strong earnings. A weak jobs report, the upcoming Fed meeting, and the election added uncertainty. Oil prices increased again due to tensions in the Middle East, while China's manufacturing prospects improved on stimulus measures. BTC and ETH remained unchanged, sitting just below $70K and above $2.6K, respectively, after a sharp correction over the previous two days as some traders locked in profits ahead of the elections.

Details

Unemployment rate remained steady at 4.1%. While the labor force participation rate declined slightly, the number of unemployed persons and job losers remained relatively unchanged. 1Y trend: "Down
Job growth slowed significantly in October, adding only 12K jobs. The decline was primarily due to a Boeing strike and hurricane disruptions. Employment in healthcare and government increased, while manufacturing and temporary help services declined. 1Y trend: "Up (BLS)
The ISM Manufacturing PMI fell to 46.5 in October, indicating a continued contraction in the sector. Production, new orders, and inventories declined. Price pressures increased, while employment and supplier deliveries showed slight improvement. 1Y trend: "Side (ISM)

Crypto

Crypto industry layoffs continue. Consensys (20%), Kraken (15%), dYdX (35%), and Nova Labs (36%) have recently reduced their workforces due to market conditions and strategic shifts. (source)
Following a CNN/SRSS poll on Oct. 31, Harris saw her odds improve in two battleground states, with a 5% increase in Wisconsin and 6% in Michigan. Her overall chances of winning the election rose from 2.3% to 39.6%, while Trump holds a 60.3% lead overall. Trump leads Harris by 22.2% across six key states, including a 14% advantage in Pennsylvania. A Galaxy Research report shows Trump ahead in 18 venues, though he has lost his lead in 13 of them. (sourrce)

World Markets

Brazil's manufacturing PMI eased to 52.9 in October, but still indicated solid growth. Output and new orders increased, driven by international demand. Job creation remained strong, and price pressures eased. Businesses expressed increased optimism about future prospects. 1Y trend: "Up (SP)
Argentina's central bank slashed its interest rate by 500 basis points to 35%, reflecting progress in curbing inflation. President Milei's fiscal policies have helped reduce inflation from over 25% monthly to around 3.5% in recent months. However, these policies have also led to economic slowdown and increased poverty (above 50%). 1Y trend: "Up (AR)
China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3 in October, as a result of a series of stimulus measures from Beijing in late September, indicating expansion in factory activity. Output and new orders increased, while export orders declined at a slower pace. Employment fell, and input costs rose, leading to higher selling prices. Overall sentiment improved, but challenges remain. 1Y trend: "Down (SP)
Russia's manufacturing PMI rose to 50.6 in October, signaling expansion. Output and new orders improved, with export orders rising significantly. However, employment remained weak, and input and output costs increased. Businesses expressed optimism about future investment. (SP)

Commodities

Oil prices rose, driven by tensions between Iran and Israel. Market participants are concerned about potential escalation and its impact on oil supplies. OPEC+ may delay production cuts due to weak demand and rising supply. However, overall sentiment remains cautious due to geopolitical risks and economic uncertainties. 1Y trend: "Side

On Week 45, the upcoming presidential elections on Tuesday will be closely monitored by global investors, alongside the Fed's interest rate decision and various economic indicators like the ISM Services PMI and consumer sentiment. Earnings reports from large and mid-cap companies will also be significant. Additionally, interest rate decisions from several countries, along with Germany’s industrial data and European PMIs, will offer insights into the European economy. In China, key events include the National People's Congress and important trade and inflation metrics.