Monday's Markets Update (December 2, 2024)

03 Dec 2024 by rate3

On Monday equities rose to a new ATH as tech stocks continued to lead the Trump rally. Traders keep disregarding fundamentals reflected in worsening manufacturing data. Investors are now focused on the upcoming jobs report and Fed speeches. French stocks dropped on the threat of a no-confidence motion. The yuan weakened to a one-year low. BTC lingered under 97K as traders continued to accumulate, and ETH stayed above 3.6K.

Details

The Manufacturing PMI was revised upward to 49.7 in November, indicating a stabilization in the sector. New orders declined less sharply, and employment increased. Input cost inflation eased, while output prices rose slightly. Business confidence improved due to the election results and expectations of stronger economic growth. 1Y trend: "Up" (PMI)

Crypto

Crypto trading volume reached a record high of $2.71T in November, driven by increased institutional investment and the growth of DeFi. This surge in activity has benefited crypto exchanges and could lead to further innovation and adoption of digital currencies. (source)

World Markets

The Eurozone manufacturing sector worsened in November, with production, new orders, and employment declining sharply. Key economies experienced significant downturns, while business confidence remained subdued. 1Y trend: "Up" (SP). The Euro Area's unemployment rate remained steady at 6.3% in October, holding at a record low. 1Y trend: "Down" (EU)
The CAC 40 fell 1% due to political uncertainty in France. The threat of a no-confidence motion against the government weighed on investor sentiment, particularly affecting financial and automotive stocks. 1Y trend: "Side"
Spain's manufacturing PMI fell to 53.1 in November, signaling slower growth. While international sales increased, production and new orders softened due to weather disruptions. Employment and purchasing activity also slowed. Despite these challenges, business confidence remained strong. 1Y trend: "Up" (SP). Spain's vehicle sales increased by 6.5% YoY in November. 1Y trend: "Up" (Anfac)
South Africa's manufacturing PMI fell to 48.1 in November, indicating a contraction in factory activity. Weakening demand, rising interest rates, and global uncertainties contributed to the decline. 1Y trend: "Side" (ZA)
Brazil's manufacturing PMI fell to 52.3 in November, indicating slower growth. While new orders remained strong, output, exports, and employment growth slowed. Input and output price pressures eased, but remained elevated. 1Y trend: "Up" (PMI)

Currencies

The offshore yuan weakened to a one-year low of 7.31 due to a stronger US dollar, trade tensions, and concerns over China's economic growth. Weak PMI data and expectations of further Chinese stimulus measures also contributed to the yuan's decline. 1Y trend: "Up, Depreciating"
The Brazilian real weakened to a record low of 6.06 per USD in December. Rising inflation expectations, concerns over fiscal policy, and potential tariffs on Brazilian goods contributed to the depreciation. Reduced Chinese demand for Brazilian commodities further exacerbated the situation. 1Y trend: "Up, Depreciating"

Commodities

Comment: What's Up with Tariffs and Presidents? (2)

The further in a forest, the more ridiculous the White House sounds in both senses. First, an incoming president threatens 100% tariffs on BRICs if they come out with an alternative to the USD currency. Why do they think BRICs want out of the dollar area? Maybe because it is 'weaponized' by tariff threats? Why is the number of BRICs participants growing like never before in its history? Might it be because their economies have grown out of the 'sandboxes,' and now their elites are thinking of claiming parts of this world for themselves? So, what might be a smart strategy in this situation? Could it be getting more allies on your side? How do you get long-term allies? Perhaps not by 'blackmailing' them, right?

The second 'move' is from an outgoing president pardoning his own sibling after swearing he would never do that :) By the way, that came right after the same person promised to submit his post to a 'younger generation' and then, without pause, stated on all cameras, 'mmmm... rather not.' This really sounds a big bell about the current 'governance mechanism,' which is staking our fate and the fate of the Earth on capricious and unpredictable personalities. Even aside from those ridiculous events, it has been absolutely clear even 10-15 years ago that the centralized, 'wise leaders' based opaque governance mechanism is one of the last remnants of the Middle Ages, which we have to get rid of. We have already developed and proven blockchain-based algorithmic consensus, which make the implementation of direct democratic governance at all levels a question of 'ASAP.'