SVET Reports
SVET Markets Weekly Update (March 17–21, 2025)
On Week 12, major indexes corrected upward marginally after a month of decline, primarily due to technical overselling, along with the Fed holding rates unchanged and Powell suggesting that the inflationary influence of tariffs on the economy is “transitory.”
On Monday, stocks continued Friday’s rebound, encouraged by an absence of negativity coming from the White House, despite the manufacturing index dropping to the lowest level in two years and the increasing pressure on the Fed due to input prices rising the fastest during that period, as well as rapidly declining business optimism and weak capital spending. The housing index plunged to a seven-month low, despite some relief on the regulatory side.
World’s Markets:
The EU market is on the rise due to the momentum from peace talks.
Brazilian economic activity has jumped to a seven-month high as the real continues to strengthen, attracting inflows due to high Selic rates. The local market index is up, driven by resource-heavy equities, as Chinese data points to the potential for increased demand.
India registered the smallest imports in four years due to a drop in energy purchases. Local markets are up, boosted by pharma and finance, rising on Chinese news.
China’s CCP announced a Special Action Plan to Boost Consumption, which includes measures to increase both household income and spending, as well as population growth. Consequently, the local stock market rose. Meanwhile, the local jobless rate hit a two-year high of 5.4%, and real estate investments dropped by 10%, while industrial output growth continues to slow down, primarily in manufacturing.
Commodities and Currencies:
The dollar nears a five-month low in expectation of an economic slowdown. Gold hovers near all-time highs. Oil jumped on rising tensions in the Red Sea.
Crypto:
BTC, ETH, SOL, ADA, and other coins are on the rise, following stocks.
The State Of Markets: In green, all markets are rising due to an absence of negativity that has traditionally emanated from the White House over the past two months.
Details
World Markets
The OECD G20 growth forecast lowered to 3.1% from 3.3% (2025) and to 2.9% from 3.2% (2026), citing tariffs war. The local economy is expected: 2025 — to grow 2.2% vs. 2.4% (December estimate); 2026–1.6% vs. 2.1%. Canada: 2025 and 2026: 0.7% for both years (from 2%). Mexico: -1.3% (2025) and -0.6% (2026). Eurozone: +1.0% in 2025 (vs. +1.3%) and 1.2% in 2026 (vs. 1.5%), with downgrades for Germany, France, and Italy. UK: +1.4% in 2025 (vs. 1.7%) and 1.2% in 2026 (vs. 1.3%). China is expected to expand +4.8% this year (vs. 4.7%) before slowing to 4.4% in 2026.
Comment: Economic Consequences of the MAGAntilism.
According to the OECD, the White House’s ‘tariff games’ have already cost the G20 a -0.2% growth in 2025, followed by -0.3% in 2026, which includes -0.2% for the American economy (with GDP growth cut from 2.2% to 1.9%). In dollar terms, this would result in a “red-ink” of USD -430B for the OECD, including USD -60B for America.
Essentially, Americans will pay the price of tariffs nearly equivalent to the Trump Official Coin market capitalization at its peak on January 20 (~USD 50B).
On the other hand, tariffs have played well into China’s hands, with the economy now expected to rise by +4.8% (up from 4.7% previously). Additionally, we see more second- and third-tier economies benefiting from a new redistribution of trade due to geopolitics and tariffs. For example, Indonesia’s exports of vegetable oil, iron, steel, and machinery have skyrocketed to a two-year high, with deliveries particularly increasing to the USA and China.
Therefore, we are doing remarkably well, aligning closely with my early forecasts of the economic consequences of the White House’s new policy of ‘MAGAntilism.’
On Tuesday, equities are down due to technical volatility in response to mixed economic data, with increasing industrial production and soaring housing starts (a seasonal effect resulting from spring resurgence after delays due to snowstorms and low temperatures), but declining building permits, which have reached a five-month low.
World’s Markets:
EU markets are up, supported by peace talks and projected growth of government deficits. EU economic sentiment hit its highest level in eight months, primarily due to ECB easing, defense spending, and a German internal budget agreement, while the balance of trade plummeted to +1B euros, reaching a 2-year low. Spain’s trade deficit climbed to a 2.5-year high due to a sharp contraction in auto and energy exports, primarily to Mexico (-20%) and France (-14%). Italy also recorded a steep drop in exports and a surge in imports (primarily natural gas).
Brazilian business sentiment remained subdued, hanging near 2-year lows. The local market went red due to a tax exemption bill and hawkish anticipations regarding the Seltic rate.
Indian equities soared to a four-week high on China’s stimulus measures, low inflation, and expected RBI rate softening.
China’s indexes increased following the CCP Economic briefing and technical volatility led by the tech sector.
The Tertiary Industry Index — Japan’s key business indicator published by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) — ticked down to 101.6 (100 = the 2015 base), marking the seventh month of contraction. The yen fell to a two-week low as the BoJ is expected to hold its rate steady. Local stocks rallied.
Commodities and Currencies:
Gold soared to new all-time highs due to a combination of geopolitical instability and global economic slowdown. Oil continues to rise amid the conflict in the Red Sea. The dollar remains at a five-month low.
Crypto:
BTC, ETH, and SOL are back in the red, continuing to follow the trend of equities.
The State Of Markets: Mixed, American markets are in the red, mostly due to technical volatility compounded by mixed economic data in advance of the Fed’s rate decision. The EU grew on defense spending, while Asian stocks soared, primarily on enthusiasm about renewed Chinese economic growth.
On Wednesday, stocks rallied after the Fed held rates steady, as expected, and signaled two rate cuts later this year. The S&P, Dow and Nasdaq jumped. The Fed’s softer economic outlook, with weaker growth, higher unemployment, and elevated inflation projections, fueled expectations of rate cuts. Tech stocks Nvidia, Broadcom and Alphabet held gains, while Tesla surged 4after securing $1 billion in funding. The Fed’s slower balance sheet reduction boosted liquidity, lifting market sentiment. The Fed lowered growth forecasts but raised inflation expectations, though Powell called tariff impacts ‘transitory’. Markets now price in two 2024 rate cuts, with the first likely in June or July. Investors await jobless claims data for labor market insights.
Commodities and Currencies:
The dollar index hovered near a five-month low at 103.4 as the Fed reaffirmed its rate cut outlook. Officials projected another half-point reduction through 2025, despite uncertainties around Trump’s policies.
Crypto:
BTC rose +5%, while ETH surged +6% following major indexes.
The State Of Markets: Mostly In Green: majority of world’s market rose as Powell called tariff impacts ‘transitory’.
On Thursday, market indexes corrected after yesterday’s spark, while jobless claims rose alongside existing home sales; however, manufacturing activity continued to decline along with business conditions.
World’s Markets:
EU markets went red as construction output decreased, with banks and defense stocks leading the decline. The ECB hinted at further easing. The Bank of England, following the Fed, kept its rate unchanged at 4.5%, with an overwhelming majority of 8–1.
Brazilian equities dropped, with Embraer falling and JBS rising on listing hopes, ending a 6-day rally amid fiscal worries and a hawkish central bank.
Indian equities rose for a fourth day, reaching over one-month highs on hopes of improved liquidity and growth.
The South African central bank chose not to lower rates, remaining at 7.5%, as it did in the previous session, citing rising service inflation despite lower fuel prices.
Crypto:
BTC, ETH, and SOL are in the red, continuing to follow stocks.
The State Of Markets: Down, markets corrected after short-lived rally.
On Friday, major indexes closed in the green thanks to technical volatility, aided by a “quadruple witching.”
World’s Markets:
EU stocks declined as they corrected after a boost from sharply increased military spending. The manufacturing climate in France deteriorated slightly, primarily due to the food and beverages sector. Overall, this indicator has been gradually diminishing after a sudden jump in November 2024. This decline was accompanied by a drop in consumer confidence in Spain.
Brazilian equities gained slightly, securing a modest weekly rise as traders reacted positively to budget approval and signals from the central bank regarding monetary policy.
Indian stocks continued their March relief rally for the fifth day, supported by strong economic data.
Chinese stocks corrected for the third consecutive day on profit-taking.
Thailand recorded its largest trade surplus in 1.5 years, with exports jumping 14% year-on-year, driven by growing transits, particularly in industrial and agricultural products delivered to America (18.3%), China (22.4%), and the EU (4.5%).
Commodities and Currencies:
The dollar index rebounded after the Fed held its interest rates, despite Powell describing the inflationary effects of tariffs as “transitory.”
Oil prices edged higher due to new tariffs targeting Iranian exports to China.
Steel prices slipped to a 2-month low following a 10% drop in China’s housing investments, as Taiwan, Vietnam, South Korea, and Brazil imposed tariffs on mills’ offload sales. Meanwhile, China plans to build up its strategic reserves of key industrial metals, including cobalt, copper, nickel, and lithium.
Crypto:
Following the tariff-induced market turmoil, major coins and tokens have been trading close to their yearly support levels, with BTC below 85K and ETH below 2K.
The State Of Markets: Mixed, as markets took a technical pause while some traders fixed their gains or “bought the dip” amid geopolitical uncertainties and the absence of major news.
On Week 13, investors will watch Fed speeches, key data like PCE, PMIs, and GDP, plus housing updates. Global focus includes March PMIs, inflation reports, and economic indicators from Germany, Canada, the UK, and Mexico’s rate decision.