SVET Reports
SVET Markets Weekly Update (March 24–28, 2025)
On Week 13, stock indexes declined worldwide due to the continuation of a nonsensical trade war, now compounded by worsening major macroeconomic parameters. This was accompanied by a slipping dollar index and gold reaching new record highs. As a result, traders actively de-risked from crypto assets.
On Monday, equities continued to rally on technicals, aided by unconfirmed rumors of easing tariff policies. The National Activity Index rose due to improved production, while manufacturing PMI declined after a tariff-driven boost, accompanied by a sharp increase in input costs, with growth registered in services.
World’s Markets:
EU stocks are flat as European PMI increased marginally, with manufacturing growth recording the strongest expansion in three years. French PMI rose slightly but remained in the contraction zone for both the manufacturing and services sectors, with payrolls falling and a pessimistic business outlook. Meanwhile, German PMI showed better performance, indicating the strongest growth in the private sector for the fifth month, boosted by incoming new work in manufacturing, while services stalled. Employment fell while inflation eased.
The Brazilian market is experiencing a slight decline as investors remain cautious ahead of the tariffs triggering on April 2nd.
Indian stocks reached a one-month high, continuing their March rally in response to China’s improved economic outlook and growing manufacturing.
Chinese equities rose following Premier Li Qiang’s call for greater market openness at the China Development Forum, where Apple CEO Tim Cook was present.
Commodities and Currencies:
The dollar reached a three-week high due to perceived alleviation of tariffs.
Crypto:
BTC, ETH, and SOL are in the green, continuing to closely follow stock markets.
The State Of Markets: Mixed, with American equities continuing to rally on technicals, Asian stocks rising on an improved Chinese outlook, while EU markets are stalled due to weak fundamentals.
On Tuesday, equities were mixed, while building permits dropped to the lowest level in six months, and home prices rose by 4.7%. Consumer confidence fell below expectations to a four-year low, with future expectations hitting a twelve-year bottom. Additionally, the manufacturing index dropped sharply to -4 from +6 a month ago due to a steep decrease in shipments.
World’s Markets:
EU stocks were up on the Black Sea ceasefire, as the German business climate (86.7) continued to improve for the third month in a row, driven by a budget deal, with both manufacturers and service providers showing growing optimism. However, this indicator has been falling consistently since June 2021 when it reached 101.
The Brazilian real continued to strengthen on further tightening expectations and improved consumer confidence, which still remains in a pessimistic range. Local stocks rose.
The Indian market experienced a profit-taking recess, interrupting a week-long rally.
Chinese equities struggle for traction as the economy continues to grapple with slow growth, despite the CCP setting a 5% GDP growth target, raising the deficit to a three-decade high, and planning to boost consumption and domestic demand.
The South African business indicator, which has been falling since mid-2024, rose slightly, mostly due to sales of cars and residential buildings, but continues to show long-term challenges.
Turkey’s manufacturing index increased, continuing its rise since December 2024. In the long run, the index has declined from over 114 in August 2021 to the current level of 104, indicating a persistent slowdown in the sector.
Commodities and Currencies:
Oil, the dollar index, gold, and silver have stabilized as traders remain uncertain.
Crypto:
BTC and ETH are holding their gains, while SOL continues to rise due to being technically oversold.
The State Of Markets: Mixed, with American markets ending Monday’s relief rally, EU indexes showing some gains on a partial ceasefire, and Asian stocks uncertain in direction.
On Wednesday, equities were in the red due to new levies on auto woes, despite manufacturing orders growing in February by almost 1%, surpassing the forecast of a 1% decline. This growth was boosted by defense aircraft and parts, which increased by 9%. However, it was offset by a 0.3% drop in non-defense capital goods orders attributed to tariffs.
World’s Markets:
EU markets were down due to new anti-economic growth initiatives from Trump, with the tech, auto, and pharma sectors taking the biggest hits.
Consumer confidence in France fell across a range of measured parameters, such as financial outlook and standard of living, which worsened further with joblessness reaching a 2021 high. At the same time, this indicator remained below its long-term average of 100 but had been continuously rising since 2022 before a dip in 2025.
The Spanish economy grew by 3.4% in Q4 2024, decelerating from 3.5% in the previous quarter, with most growth coming from primary industries (agriculture and mining). Meanwhile, consumer confidence hit an 11-month low, with expectations regarding the economic situation deteriorating.
Foreign investment in Brazil reached a year-high of $9B, compared to a long-term average of $4B. The local market rose in response to lower rate expectations combined with rebounding construction confidence.
Indian traders took profits after a 3-week rally, with banks experiencing the most downside.
Chinese stocks declined due to volatility and looming tariffs
Japan’s 10-year bond yield reached a 16-year high of 1.59% on the Bank of Japan’s continued strengthening, as economic growth exceeded forecasts. The BoJ raised its rate to 0.5% in January, the highest in 17 years.
Commodities and Currencies:
Oil prices jumped to a four-week high due to Trump’s threats of levies on Venezuela oil buyers. The dollar index neared a three-week high amidst global uncertainties.
Crypto:
BTC, ETH, and SOL fluctuated around their Tuesday levels, following the trends in the stock market.
The State Of Markets: Mostly down, world’s equities declined on Trump’s trade war new initiatives.
On Thursday, market indexes went down as core PCE jumped to 2.6% in Q4 (vs. 2.2% in Q3), and the economy expanded by 2.4% in Q4 compared to 3.1% in Q3 due to a sharp fall in imports (-1.9%), accompanied by a significant contraction in fixed investments (-1.1%) and intellectual investments (-0.5%). Still, the trade deficit remained at historic highs (-$148B), driven by a sharp rise in industrial supplies (+56%). On a positive note, pending home sales jumped to 2% — the first increase in 3 months.
World’s Markets:
EU stocks fell, led by autos, on the announced 25% levies. The German car industry was hit the hardest, as it exports 25% of its output to America.
The Brazilian real continues to strengthen due to the central bank’s persistent (since September 2024) hawkishness, added by carry trade amid one of the world’s highest interest rates. Markets went up despite a downgraded GDP projection (+1.9%), boosted by slightly lower inflation (5.26%).
Indian equities stalled after profit-taking, as tariff negotiations continued.
China tripled its debt issuance in Q1 2025 to 1.45T CNY (~$200B USD) and plans to raise it to ~12T CNY in 2025 to support economic growth. The country’s industrial profits dropped, especially in coal mining (-47%), but rose in agriculture (+38%). Markets went down on tariffs.
Saudi Arabia’s trade surplus, which is primarily made up of oil (69% of all exports) sales to China (13%), South Korea (10%), and Japan (10%), has been gradually diminishing after a 2022 peak when it reached $90B. At the same time, imports (primarily machinery and electrical equipment, which account for 25% of total exports) rose by 44% in December YoY. This shows that as de-globalization continues, regional production hubs are slowing down while the world’s major manufacturing centers stall.
Commodities and Currencies:
The dollar index is down, while gold nears the record of $3.1K amid geopolitical and economic turmoil.
Crypto:
BTC, ETH, and SOL continued to side shift as crypto market inflows sank to a 2-year low, and sentiment remained stuck in “fear.”
The State Of Markets: Mostly down, the tariff war continues to weigh on all the world’s equities as traders succumb to fear and keep selling.
Comment: Strange Things Are Happening.
Even if you try to stay out of politics altogether, you can’t help but notice a couple of strange things happening. The first is that the WH (a.k.a. “government”) is saying that they want to “detox” the economy by getting government out of it. However, they do that through one of the most violent means available to government — economically and politically absolutely unsubstantiated, high-sky tariffs (a.k.a. “taxes”) — or by having government 100% meddle with the economy.
Second, the WH is saying that “Canada and Mexico (a.k.a. the rest of the world) ripped us off,” so now we will be “ripping them off” and implement “us first, no matter what” Truth. However, by doing that, the WH creates a “ripping” effect that not only will get back to them but also let others — even friends — displace us from “being the first” to “being out the door.”
Third, the WH claims to be a “peace maker” by threatening independent and legendary peaceful countries with take-overs (a.k.a. “military invasion”).
Fourth, the WH is saying that there is so much “fraud and crime” going on in the government without coming out with a shred of evidence. Moreover, if there has been so much (worth a “trillion” USD) “fraud,” then mathematically it has to be accumulating over decades — including the time when the same (almost) WH administration was in power.
Fifth, despite all those strange discrepancies, every single major move of the WH can be explained (and even predicted) by one single thing — whether or not two personages — Barack Obama and/or Joe Biden — were somehow involved in that. So, the strangest thing to say (and I am not saying that I am saying that, of course) is that all of these gigantic geopolitical and economic missteps might be explained straightforwardly by one of the most rudimentary but very powerful human emotions — hate and vengeance?
Of course, this can’t be, ever. So it’s the strangest thing number Six.
On Friday, monthly core PCE jumped to 2.8%, the highest increase in a year, up from 2.7%, leading to a sharp decline in stock indexes. This was compounded by consumer sentiment dropping to its lowest level since November 2022, as expectations worsened for personal finances, business conditions, unemployment, and inflation.
World’s Markets:
The European Union’s economic sentiment also fell to its lowest level in three months. Germany’s unemployment rate reached 6.3%, the highest level since September 2020. EU equities reacted by declining for the third consecutive day, with banks and energy stocks leading the downturn.
Brazil’s unemployment rate increased to 6.8%, up from 6.5% the previous month, while inflation turned to disinflation at -0.34% for the first time in a year. The real depreciated as equities fell.
India’s government budget deficit stood at 13 trillion INR (with expenses at 39 trillion and revenues at 26 trillion). Meanwhile, infrastructure output slowed to an increase of 2.9%, down from 5.1% year-on-year, with coal, refinery products, and cement leading the decline. Local stocks decreased.
Chinese equities fell despite Xi Jinping’s promises to business leaders to support the economy, as traders anticipated PMI data.
The Bank of Japan signaled intentions for further rate hikes as Japanese inflation reached 2.4%. Stocks responded by declining.
Argentina’s current account shifted drastically to a surplus of 4B USD, driven by inflows from the success of free-market reforms, along with the largest expansion in economic activity since May 2022.
Commodities and Currencies:
Gold reached a new all-time high, marking its fourth consecutive week of gains. The dollar index is down amid growing economic concerns.
Crypto:
BTC, ETH, and SOL are in deep red, as traders continue to knee-jerk sell each time stocks decline.
The State Of Markets: In Red, the world’s major market indexes responded negatively to the worsening global and local macroeconomic picture, led by a sharp increase in core PCE index.
On Week 14, investors will watch trade war updates, including new tariffs starting April 2, and key economic data like jobs, ISM PMIs, China/Japan/Eurozone indicators, and German factory orders.
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